Social Policy

한국 민주주의 추락

changebuilder 2025. 3. 28. 22:47

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영국 시사주간지 이코노미스트의 부설 경제 분석기관인 ‘이코노미스트 인텔리전스 유닛’(EIU)이 발표한 ‘민주주의 지수 2024’(Democracy Index 2024)에서 한국은 32위로 2023년 평가에서 10단계 하락했다. 한국은 평가 총점에서 10점 만점에 7.75점으로, 2023년의 8.09점보다 내려갔다. 이로 인해 2020년부터 4년 연속 포함된 최상위 단계인 ‘완전한 민주주의’(full democracy)에서 ‘결함 있는 민주주의’(flawed democracy) 국가로 떨어졌다. 한국은 올해 보고서에서 점수가 크게 하락한 10대 국가 중 한 곳이다.

이 기관은 지난 2006년부터 167개 국가를 대상으로 5개 영역을 평가해 민주주의 발전 수준 점수를 산출해왔다. 8점이 넘는 국가는 ‘완전한 민주주의’, 6점 초과∼8점 이하는 ‘결함 있는 민주주의’, 4점 초과∼6점 이하는 ‘민주·권위주의 혼합형 체제’, 4점 미만은 ‘권위주의 체제’ 4단계로 구분한다. 이 기관은 보고서에서 한국 점수 하향 조정 이유로 윤석열 대통령 비상계엄 사태를 들었다. ‘한국의 흔들리는 민주주의’라는 소제목 아래 비상계엄 사태를 언급하며 “이 에피소드는 한국 민주주의 (1987년 민주화 이후) 37년이라는 비교적 짧은 역사와 상대적 취약성을 상기시켰다”며 “1948년 이후 17차례 계엄령이 선포됐던 사건들에 대해 다시 초점을 맞추게 한다”고 적었다. 이어서 “(윤석열) 대통령 계엄령 시도는 한국 정치 시스템의 제도적 및 행동적 약점을 드러냈다”고 지적했다. 또한, “정당들 간 뿌리 깊은 대립과 타협하지 않으려는 경향은 정치 시스템을 더 불안정하게 만들고 있다”고도 짚었다. “한국 정치의 특징인 정치적 양극화는 정치적 폭력과 사회적 불안정을 증가시킬 위험이 있다”고 결론 내렸다.

전 세계 평균 점수는 5.17점으로 지난해에 이어 2006년 이후 사상 최저점을 경신했다. 최고치는 2015년의 5.55점이었다. 1위는 노르웨이(9.81), 2위는 뉴질랜드(9.61), 3위는 스웨덴(9.39)이었다. 10위 안에 아시아권은 없었다. 대만은 전년도에서 2단계 내려갔지만, 12위(8.78)로 순위가 아시아에서 가장 높았다. 일본은 8.48점으로 16위를 유지했다. 미국은 전년보다 1계단 오른 28위(7.85점)로 ‘결함 있는 민주주의’로 유지됐다.

<한겨레신문 기사 인용,  조기원 기자 2025-02-28 >

 

민주주의 지수의 또다른 지표인 V-DEM 지수도 유사한 분석을 하고 있다.  스웨덴 예테보리 대학의 독립 연구기관인 V-Dem(브이뎀, Varieties of Democracy: 민주주의다양성 연구소)는 지난 7일 공개한 연례보고서 <민주주의 리포트 2024: 투표에서의 민주주의 승패>에서 한국을 “민주화에서 독재화(autocratization)로의 전환이 진행되는 국가” 가운데 하나로 꼽고 있다.

 

EIU’s 2024 Democracy Index, launched today, sheds light on trends in democracy globally in 2024, with the annual index registering a decline in its total score from 5.23 in 2023 to 5.17 (on a 0-10 scale).

  • The overall global Democracy Index score has fallen from 5.52 in 2006 to an historic low of 5.17 in 2024, when 130 countries of the total 167 covered by the index either registered a decline in their score or made no improvement.
  • More than one-third (39.2%) of the world population live under authoritarian rule. Sixty countries are now classified as “authoritarian regimes”, an increase of one compared with the 2023 index, and an increase of eight from a decade ago in 2014.
  • The categories that have recorded the biggest deterioration since 2008 are civil liberties (-1.00 on a 0-10 scale) and electoral process and pluralism (-0.66), however the global average score for political participation improved by 0.74 between 2008 and 2024.
  • Western Europe has the highest index score of any region, at 8.38, and was the only one to improve its overall score in 2024. The United Kingdom improved its score, moving up the rankings from 18th in 2023 to 17th.
  • The US score remained unchanged in 2024 and the US continues to be classified as a “flawed democracy,” ranked 28th. It remains to be seen if historical checks and balances will remain in force and serve to improve or worsen the US’s ranking in 2025.
  • The Nordic countries (Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Finland and Denmark) continue to dominate the Democracy Index rankings, taking five of the top seven spots, with New Zealand claiming second place and Switzerland moving up to fifth.
  • France’s score fell just below the 8.00 threshold to qualify as a “full democracy” because of a decline in its score for functioning of government. Therefore, France was downgraded from a ‘full democracy’ to a “flawed democracy” in 2024.
  • Following the tumultuous political events at the end of 2024, South Korea’s score also fell below the 8.00 threshold for classification as a “full democracy”.
  • Portugal was upgraded to a “full democracy”, as were Estonia (for the first time) and the Czech Republic (for the first time since 2013), the only two east European countries to be classified as “full democracies”.

“While autocracies seem to be gaining strength, as shown by the index trend since 2006, the world’s democracies are struggling,” says Joan Hoey, Director for the Democracy Index. “The causes of this protracted democracy recession are complex. In this year’s report, we discuss the factors that have fuelled popular dissatisfaction with democratic political systems over the past two decades, resulting in the rise of political insurgents such as Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, Javier Milei and Marine Le Pen. If insurgents come to power and fail to improve governance and deliver tangible improvements for citizens, there is a risk that disaffection and political polarisation will grow.”

The decline in the overall index score in 2024 was driven by reversals in every region of the world with the exceptions of Western Europe, whose average index score improved by the smallest margin possible (0.01 points), and North America, whose score stayed the same. The other five regions registered a decline in their average index score, with the biggest regressions occurring in the Middle East and North Africa (-0.11) and Asia and Australasia (-0.10).

In 2024, the two index categories that registered the biggest declines were functioning of government and electoral process and pluralism. The latter score declined by 0.08 compared with 2023, which was disappointing given that so many countries went to the polls in 2024. According to our calculations, 75 countries held elections that were national in scope, including eight of the ten most populous countries in the world (Bangladesh, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia and the US). This “votequake” delivered some positive outcomes. In many countries, voters ejected governments that had not delivered. However, many elections were not free and fair and other prerequisites of democracy, such as freedom of speech and association, were absent. The score for electoral process and pluralism declined in every region except western Europe and North America.

The functioning of government category registered a 0.13-point decline in 2024. This is the lowest- scoring category of the index, with a global average score of 4.53. This poor performance is the result of core weaknesses afflicting democratic systems, developed and developing alike. Gridlock, dysfunction, corruption, insufficient transparency and a lack of accountability have undermined public confidence in governments, political parties and politicians. In many countries, powerful interest groups and the wealthy exert significant influence. Governments outsource decision-making to non-elected bodies. Citizens feel that they do not have control over their governments. As a result, popular trust in democratic institutions has been in decline for many years and helped to deliver an overwhelming rebuke to incumbents in 2024.

EIU’s Democracy Index 2024 is available now at eiu.com/democracy-index.

Additional exclusive content and deeper analysis are available through our Country Analysis service. To arrange a demonstration or explore its features and content, please contact us or visit www.eiu.com/country-analysis

Thu, 27th Feb 2025